The North holds the key for Conservative Party's bid to keep hold of Government

Despite much of the Tory support in 2019 in Yorkshire coming from ex-Labour voters, pollsters noted there is no guarantee they will return to the fold, meaning many areas will be marginal for years to come.

“The only Conservative that should sleep safely and not worry about things are the ones with sweeping countryside and farms and rolling dales, nothing realistically is going to happen in Richmond,” said Anthony Wells, director of YouGov’s political and social opinion polling.

However, he added that a large unknown for the next general election remains in whether the “realignment” seen in the last two elections has finished, or if more Labour voters could trend towards the Tories.

“The swings back in Barnsley and Doncaster are unlikely to be the Barnsley and Doncaster of 20 years ago where a Labour majority of 20 to 30,000, and a couple of terms into a Labour Government, is going to be a key marginal again,” he added.

“(A lot of places) are going to be a battleground seat for the future, it’s not going to be a dyed in the wool Labour place that the Tories can’t compete in.”

Tory MPs in the region told The Yorkshire Post they are seeing this in their constituencies, with last month’s local council results suggesting the 15-point Labour lead seen across the country does not apply everywhere.

“The Labour support is soft and fair minded folk in my home constituency of the Colne and Holme valleys and Lindley certainly aren’t warming to flip flopping Sir Keir Starmer,” said Jason McCartney, the Colne Valley MP defending a majority of 5,000 gained when he regained his seat in 2019.

“Labour didn’t gain any wards in the local elections in my constituency whereas we gained a Conservative councillor in a Holme Valley ward. In a previously strong Labour area the Greens gained votes at Labour’s expense.”

He puts this down to focusing on local issues such as £5.6m from the Levelling Up Fund for Marsden Mills, the opening of a new A&E unit, and the Trans-Pennine rail upgrade, in contrast to Labour’s “corrosively cynical Twitterati cheerleaders” who “talk our region down”.

His colleague Robbie Moore, who is defending the classic Tory-Labour marginal of Keighley, is also focusing on local issues, with the area finally getting the upgrade to Airedale Hospital which local leaders have been seeking for years.

He said while he takes “nothing for granted” rooting the campaigning in the community was reflected in local election results which will stand him in good stead for the local election.

“The Conservatives across the constituency bucked the national trend and secured an 8 percentage point lead on Labour,” he added, saying that local residents had seen the Labour-run council making headlines for “all the wrong reasons” such as failing children’s services.

Alex Stafford, viewed internally by Tory HQ, and from some in Labour, as one of the party’s top performers locally, is also making the most of championing levelling up projects such as £12 million for Dinnington High Street and £4.5 million for a new skills academy in Maltby.

“Labour round here is marred with scandal,” the Rother Valley told The Yorkshire Post.

Whether it's the historic CSE scandal which resulted in current selection upsets, to importing London based activists who have no knowledge or love for our area, it seems locally Labour is neither willing nor able to understand issues in my patch.

A Tory source noted that South and West Yorkshire had seen the party move forward in some areas thanks to some of its 2019 MPs, with one minister adding that they think their campaigning work will provide a “significant boost” to any hope of surviving a “red wave” at the general election.

John Grogan, the Labour candidate running to unseat Robbie Moore, and the former MP for the seat, said that his Tory opponent had done a “great job” getting Airedale Hospital on the list of buildings set to be improved under Government upgrades.

“Airedale Hospital is the one institution that does unite the constituency,” he said, but added that Labour’s current polling would mean it would be a “bad night” for the party if it wasn’t able to take Keighley and Ilkley.

Meanwhile Jake Richards, the Labour opponent for Alex Stafford in Rother Valley, said that Labour can “do more on immigration” but doesn’t buy the local campaigning of his Tory counterpart.

We were beaten and beaten badly in 2019,” he said, adding: “It had been coming, it wasn’t just a 2019 earthquake.”

“If you look at the majority in 2017, it was smaller than 2015, and in 2015 the Tory and UKIP vote combined would have beaten Labour.

“My sense is that for all that the local Tory MP wants to act like a local councillor, when people are struggling to pay their energy bills, and waiting over a year for an NHS operation, waiting over a month to see their GP.

“What is Alex Stafford going to say to a family whose mortgage has doubled, who can’t afford the weekly shop? Give us another five years because I’m busy on Facebook? It’s not going to cut it.

“People see through the hyper-local councillor vibe, people want somebody who is going to vote for a policy that is going to improve their lives and this is something they have failed to do.”