What businesses can expect from Kwasi Kwarteng's Mini-Budget - Tim Sarson

Other economic and societal issues have not gone away.

These include an ageing population and its associated pressures on the NHS and social care, climate change and the challenge of meeting net zero, and ongoing geographical inequalities.

Into the mix we are seeing a significant shift in Government policy.

Moving away from Rishi Sunak’s higher tax approach focused on balancing the books towards tax cuts and looser regulation – policies that are intended to boost economic growth and productivity, where the UK has been languishing compared to its peers.

The fiscal statement will give more information on the energy support package, which includes the promised suspension to green levies.

We expect the big tax announcements will be limited to the National Insurance reversal and Corporation Tax rate freeze.

Those two will cost £30 billion plus the cost of the energy plan, which is not yet known but will be added to the national debt.

The Corporation Tax rate freeze will be welcomed by most businesses and we should look out for further measures where tax intersects the wider investment agenda.

Ahead of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget on Friday, The Times has also reported that radical plans to cut stamp duty are in the pipeline as part of efforts to boost economic growth. Downing Street has refused to comment on those reports.

We may get hints on how the Government intends to use tax policy to deliver on broader economic agendas such as levelling up and net zero.

The new Prime Minister Liz Truss has already announced there will be no new windfall taxes, which will be a relief for the businesses potentially affected.

But they will also be looking to see whether there are any plans to replace the super-deduction which is due to expire in 2023.

Businesses will also be watching to see if the Chancellor intends to push ahead with implementing the global minimum tax.

A reversal of this policy would seem highly unlikely following recent strong commitments to the OECD initiatives from five EU nations.

The financial sector will also be watching to see if the cut to the banking surcharge from eight per cent to three per cent when the Corporation Tax rate rise was announced will be reversed.

Overall we expect this to be a fiscal announcement that focusses on what is necessary to deliver in terms of the energy package and the tax cuts.

It will also be interesting to see when the Chancellor plans to hold a full budget.

Over recent years the government has moved to one budget in the Autumn with a statement in the spring.

It is unlikely the new leadership will go an entire year before holding a full budget so we may see indications of another fiscal statement in the Autumn and a full budget in the Spring of 2023.

Tim Sarson is head of tax policy at KPMG UK