England Euro 2024 comment: The luck on Gareth Southgate's side raises stakes as his legacy boils down to a fortnight

Although he has been in charge for eight years, the judgement on Gareth Southgate as England manager will largely be based on what happens between now and July 4.

Whether it goes well or badly, this feels like the last dance for England's general in zip-up knitwear.

His contract expires in December to give everyone a bit of thinking time but after some umming and aahing after the last two tournaments, it is hard to see him staying on this time. Do badly, and it is hard to see him getting a chance.

The European Championship is a month-long examination of the continent's best football teams, but from an England perspective, the first three games can be written off.

The group stages are just the sorting period, and the Three Lions came through them – stodgily, unconvincingly, but successfully. That is all that matters. This is the quiz.

That England's route to the final looks so kind on paper will raise hopes, but also the anger if their trophy drought kicks into a seventh decade. Nobody who has not won major silverware for 58 years can be that cocky, but somehow, once they get swept up in tournament euphoria, English fans invariably find a way.

Spain's brilliance in the group, learning the lessons of Qatar and no longer keeping the ball for the sake of it like some sort of fanatical religious ritual to be observed at every tournament, will count for nothing if they come unstuck against the energetic counter-attacking of Georgia in Cologne on Sunday. Or in the quarter-finals, the semi-finals or the finals.

The same goes for Germany or Portugal's flying starts.

But the fact England will only have to beat one of those sides – and the formidable-on-paper-less-so-on-grass-so-far French – to be crowned European champions makes you wonder if the stars might just be aligning for Southgate.

The likes of Georgia have done their best to hammer home the message we should all know by now but continue to ignore: judge teams on performances, not names.

But when England were half-expecting the Netherlands and fretting about the Germans, to get the Slovakians – who need quite a bit of VAR help to get their only win thus far against Belgium – in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday was a relief nevertheless.

Italy, who England beat home and away in qualifying, or Switzerland face the winners.

The off-colour Dutch or vibrant Austria lurk as a semi-final threat but hopefully by then Ralf Rangnick's boys will have gegenpressed themselves into the same exhaustion their opponents know only too well.

Maybe in time we might even see the birth of Phil Foden's third child as a stroke of luck. Perhaps when the tournament story is written, we might be able to say that his partner, Rebecca Cooke, really was thinking of England as she lay back.

Foden is the best player in the best team (Manchester City) in England, and was the star performer in the Premier League season just gone.

Any international manager worth his salt would try to find a way of harnessing him.

But just as the injury to one of Europe's deadliest strikers, Jimmy Greaves, balanced out England in 1966, so Foden being confined to bench duties by a lack of training if he dashes back in time from the birth, might help in 2024.

Because the imbalance down a Luke Shawless left has been painful, and Foden's wandering a big part of it. It was only a few minutes but Anthony Gordon's very brief cameo against Slovenia looked much more what is needed.

And with Foden on the bench – hopefully energised and inspired by the thought of doing one of those corny thumb-sucking goal celebrations – the world-class Jude Bellingham will know he needs to belatedly bring his A game to the tournament. Players that good usually respond.

It is one of the ironies of the competition that England's only goalscorers thus far – Bellignham and Harry Kane – are facing most criticism after Southgate.

He is under pressure to find a better mix, and in doing so another stellar English footballer will have to follow Kylian Mbappe's lead and have their nose put out of joint.

Kobbie Mainoo's forward passing and midfield movement make him a no-brainer for Sunday – surely. Cole Palmer's cameo on Tuesday was a "Pick me! Pick me!" performance.

What Southgate has done for England – making wearing the Three Lions a pleasure, not a chore again, taking the team to a World Cup semi-final on foreign soil in 2018 and to within a penalty shoot-out of winning the last Euros, not to mention showing dignity so absent in his predecessor's very brief fling with the job – make him worthy of more than a judgement based on one, two, three of four games.

But it will not stop him getting it.

It deserves a lucky break too.

For Southgate, for England, it starts on Sunday. Cross your fingers it does not end then as luck will inevitably play its part. The rest is down to you and your players, Gareth.