Super-computer predicts how League One title and promotion battle will unfold for Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley FC, Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich Town and Derby County

DATA BOFFINS are predicting title glory for Sheffield Wednesday and are expecting Barnsley to hold their nerve and make the end-of-season League One play-offs.

Using their ratings for each team, experts at FiveThirtyEight simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.

They have crunched the latest numbers and believe that second-placed Wednesday - who stunned Newcastle United in the FA Cup at the weekend and are unbeaten in 13 matches since October 4 in the league - will pip current leaders Plymouth Argyle to silverware.

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Darren Moore's side are tipped to finish with 93 points, two clear of Argyle, who drew at Bolton in the league on Saturday. They are given a 77 per cent chance of promotion and 44 per cent chance of winning the title.

The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
The official Puma Sky Bet EFL match ball. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

Action this weekend sees Wednesday, who are five points adrift of Plymouth with a game in hand, face a testing trip to Wycombe.

Argyle make the journey to third-placed Ipswich, who are two points behind the Owls and seven adrift of the Devonians - albeit having played a game fewer - in a key fixture.

Meanwhile, Barnsley - who have started 2023 with successive 3-0 losses in league and cup - head to Charlton Athletic at the weekend.

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Despite recent results, the experts believe that the Reds, who currently occupy the last play-off spot, will finish in the end-of-season lottery in fifth. They are given a 55 per cent of reaching the play-offs and 20 per cent chance of promotion.

Other key weekend games see Bolton host Portsmouth and Derby head to Cheltenham. Peterborough – on the fringes of the play-offs in ninth - make the trip to the side just below them, Port Vale, on Monday evening.

Predicted League One table

Team Predicted points
Sheffield Wednesday 93
Plymouth 91
Ipswich 88
Derby 82
Barnsley 77
Bolton 75
Wycombe 72
Peterborough 68
Portsmouth 65
Port Vale 63
Bristol Rovers 62
Exeter 61
Oxford 61
Charlton 61
Fleetwood 60
Lincoln 57
Shrewsbury 55
Cheltenham 52
MK Dons 50
Morecambe 46
Accrington 45
Cambridge 44
Burton 43
Forest Green 37